The Repair vs. Replace Question
Your HVAC system stops working, and you’re facing a decision: repair it or replace it? This choice significantly impacts your comfort, budget, and home value. Here’s how to make the right call.
The 50% Rule of Thumb
If the repair cost exceeds 50% of replacement cost, consider replacing — especially if your system is over 10 years old.
Example:
- Repair estimate: $2,500
- New system cost: $8,000
- System age: 12 years
- Recommendation: Replace
Age Considerations
Systems Under 10 Years Old
Usually repair unless:
- Major component failure (compressor, heat exchanger)
- Multiple simultaneous failures
- Persistent efficiency problems
- Still under warranty
Systems 10-15 Years Old
Gray area — consider:
- Overall system condition
- Maintenance history
- Energy efficiency of current system
- Available rebates for replacement
Systems Over 15 Years Old
Strongly consider replacement:
- Approaching end of typical lifespan (15-20 years)
- Declining efficiency costing you monthly
- R-22 refrigerant (being phased out)
- Modern systems 30-40% more efficient
Component-Specific Guidance
Compressor Failure (AC/Heat Pump)
Cost to repair: $1,500-$3,000
Consider replacement if:
- System is 12+ years old
- Uses R-22 refrigerant
- Overall system showing age
Repair makes sense if:
- System under 8 years old
- Covered by warranty
- Rest of system in excellent condition
Heat Exchanger Crack (Furnace)
Cost to repair: $1,200-$2,500
Usually recommend replacement:
- Heat exchanger is heart of furnace
- Cracks can indicate carbon monoxide risk
- If one cracks, furnace likely near end of life
Blower Motor
Cost to repair: $400-$800
Usually repair:
- Relatively affordable fix
- Doesn’t indicate other problems
- Replacement parts readily available
Capacitor/Contactor
Cost to repair: $150-$400
Always repair:
- Inexpensive fix
- Normal wear-and-tear item
- Quick replacement
Refrigerant Leak
Cost to repair: $500-$1,500+ (depending on location)
Consider replacement if:
- Uses R-22 refrigerant (expensive and scarce)
- Multiple leaks or leak in coil
- System is 12+ years old
Repair if:
- Uses modern refrigerant (R-410A)
- Single accessible leak
- System relatively new
Financial Analysis
Total Cost of Ownership
Don’t just compare repair cost to replacement cost. Consider:
Repair Path:
- Immediate repair cost
- Likely future repairs (aging system)
- Higher monthly energy bills
- Reduced reliability
Replacement Path:
- Higher upfront investment
- 30-40% lower energy costs
- Warranty protection (5-10 years)
- Increased home value
- Available rebates and tax credits
Need help with the numbers? Use our HVAC Cost Predictor to estimate replacement costs and compare them against ongoing repair expenses.
Bay Area Rebates & Incentives
Federal Tax Credits (2025):
- Up to $2,000 for heat pumps
- Up to $600 for high-efficiency AC/furnace
Local Utility Rebates:
- PG&E: $500-$2,000 depending on system
- Peninsula Clean Energy: Additional rebates available
- Silicon Valley Clean Energy: Income-qualified programs
These incentives significantly reduce the true cost of replacement.
Example: Real Bay Area Scenario
Scenario: 14-year-old AC, compressor failed
Repair Option:
- Compressor replacement: $2,800
- R-22 refrigerant top-off: $400
- Total: $3,200
- Likely another repair in 2-3 years
- Monthly bills: $180/month in summer
Replace Option:
- New Carrier 16 SEER system: $7,500
- Federal tax credit: -$600
- PG&E rebate: -$500
- Net cost: $6,400
- 10-year warranty
- Monthly bills: $110/month in summer (saves $70/mo)
Analysis:
- Additional investment: $3,200
- Monthly savings: $70 x 4 months/year = $280/year
- Payback period: 11 years
- Plus: New warranty, reliability, home value increase
Warning Signs Your System is Failing
Repair Probably Won’t Help:
- Frequent breakdowns (3+ service calls/year)
- Declining efficiency despite repairs
- Uneven heating/cooling
- Strange noises getting worse
- Visible rust or corrosion
- System cycles on/off constantly
Repair Should Work:
- Single component failure
- First major issue
- Recent problem (not chronic)
- System otherwise performs well
The R-22 Refrigerant Factor
Critical consideration for Bay Area homeowners:
R-22 refrigerant was phased out in 2020. If your AC or heat pump uses R-22:
- Refrigerant now extremely expensive ($100+/lb)
- Supply will continue decreasing
- Any refrigerant-related repair very costly
- Strong case for replacement
Modern systems use R-410A refrigerant:
- Widely available
- More efficient
- More environmentally friendly
Energy Efficiency Gains
Old AC/Heat Pump (10+ years): 10-13 SEER
Modern Standard System: 14-16 SEER
High-Efficiency System: 18-24 SEER
Translation: 30-100% more efficient
In Bay Area summer cooling costs, this means:
- Old system: $150-200/month
- Modern standard: $100-130/month
- High-efficiency: $70-100/month
Making Your Decision
Choose Repair If:
✓ System under 8 years old
✓ Single component failure
✓ Repair cost under $1,000
✓ Recent maintenance history good
✓ Uses modern refrigerant
Choose Replace If:
✓ System 15+ years old
✓ Multiple or major failures
✓ Uses R-22 refrigerant
✓ Repair costs 50%+ of replacement
✓ Energy bills increasing
✓ Comfort problems (uneven temperatures)
Get an Honest Assessment
Bay Area Climate Control provides free, no-pressure evaluations. We’ll:
- Diagnose the actual problem
- Provide upfront repair pricing
- Compare repair vs. replacement costs
- Calculate potential energy savings
- Explain available rebates and financing
- Give you our honest recommendation
We’re Carrier Authorized Dealers with a repair-first philosophy. We only recommend replacement when it truly makes financial sense for you.
Call (510) 391-5597 or request a free evaluation today.